In every match — whether it’s cricket, football, or even a casino game — there’s always a favorite and an underdog. Most casual bettors chase favorites, thinking they’re the “safe” option. But if you’re betting to profit, you’ve probably wondered:

“Do underdogs actually give better returns over time?”

The short answer: Yes — but only if you know how to pick them.

In this blog, we’ll explore the real value of betting on underdogs, when it works, why it works, and how to avoid the common traps that lose money.

💡 What Is an Underdog?

An underdog is a team, player, or outcome that is expected to lose — based on odds, rankings, or form.

🏏 In cricket:

• A team like Zimbabwe playing against India
• A mid-table IPL team taking on the defending champions
• A new bowler taking on top batting lineups

Bookmakers assign higher odds to underdogs, which means higher potential returns if they win.

💰 Why Underdogs Can Offer Higher ROI

ROI = Return on Investment

While favorites win more often, their odds are low — which means lower payout.

Example:

• You bet ₹1,000 on a favorite at 1.40 odds
  → Win = ₹1,400 total (₹400 profit)
• You bet ₹1,000 on an underdog at 3.50 odds
  → Win = ₹3,500 total (₹2,500 profit)

The favorite needs to win over 3 bets just to match the 1 win from a successful underdog bet.

🎯 You don’t need to win every time — just at the right odds.

📊 The Math Behind It: Long-Term ROI

Let’s say you bet ₹1,000 on 10 underdog bets at 3.00 odds. You only need to win 4 out of 10 to make a profit:

• 4 wins × ₹2,000 profit = ₹8,000
• 6 losses = ₹6,000
• Net profit = ₹2,000

Compare that to betting on favorites at 1.40 odds — you’d need to win 9 out of 10 just to break even.

📈 Underdogs lose more often, but win big when they do.

🎯 When Underdog Betting Makes Sense

✅ 1. Undervalued Teams in Good Form

Sometimes a team is underrated based on old data, but current form suggests otherwise.

Example:
A team that lost early matches but has won the last 3 convincingly — still priced high.

✅ 2. Home Advantage Not Factored In

Underdogs playing on their home ground with crowd support and pitch familiarity can flip odds.

✅ 3. Weather or Pitch Factors

If the toss or pitch conditions suddenly favor the underdog — live odds might still offer value before the market adjusts.

✅ 4. Overhyped Favorites

Popular teams often have inflated odds due to public betting. The real winning chance may not match the price.

🔍 Red Flags: When Not to Bet on Underdogs

• ❌ Just because the odds are high — don’t chase price without research
• ❌ Weak teams with poor bowling/batting depth in all departments
• ❌ Emotional bets (e.g. supporting your home team blindly)
• ❌ Betting on massive underdogs in knockout stages or finals
• ❌ No momentum or recent form improvement

📉 Betting blindly on every underdog is a fast way to lose your bankroll.

🧠 Tips to Make Profitable Underdog Bets

🧮 1. Use Stats + Recent Form

Compare win rates, toss advantage, injury news, and conditions before placing the bet.

🏏 2. Focus on Specific Matchups

Some teams consistently beat stronger ones due to head-to-head advantage.

Example:
Punjab Kings often perform well against Mumbai Indians, despite being underdogs.

⏳ 3. Wait for Live Momentum Shifts

Sometimes the favorite stumbles early. If the underdog builds momentum, jump in at higher odds before the market catches up.

💰 4. Don’t Bet Big — Bet Smart

Use small, consistent stakes and build your bankroll slowly. Even 2–3 wins a week can deliver solid returns.

📈 Real-Life Examples (2024-2025)

• In IPL 2025, Lucknow Super Giants were underdogs vs. RCB. Toss + powerplay swing turned the match. LSG won at odds of 3.25.
• In T20 World Cup, Afghanistan beat England — a ₹500 bet at 6.50 odds would return ₹3,250.

💡 These aren’t flukes — they’re the result of smart risk-taking and market inefficiencies.

🔐 Final Thoughts: Underdogs Win — But Not Without Strategy

Betting on underdogs is not about “going against the crowd.” It’s about finding value where others aren’t looking.

You won’t win every time, and you shouldn’t expect to. But with the right research, timing, and discipline, underdog bets can deliver a much higher ROI than blindly following favorites.

✅ Recap:

• Underdogs have higher odds = higher payouts
• Win less often but offer better long-term profit
• Choose underdogs based on data, form, and conditions
• Avoid emotional or blind underdog bets
• Bet small, smart, and consistently

🎯 Sometimes the real value lies where no one is looking — that’s where underdogs shine.